Caulfield, Saturday 15/10
Conditions - Heavy
Race 1
1- QUANG TRI
7- CLIMBING STAR
5- DESIAH
Not a lot of wet track form to use to help find the winner here DESIAH is the only runner who has run on the heavy track and she was a winner that day. Can’t see any reason QUANG TRI won’t be able to handle the heavy going, she has won well on soft a perviously. She brings the strongest form lines into this and deserves to be favourite. CLIMBING STAR next in the picks, she won a maiden here quite easily and looks to go on with it now.
Race 2
13- SKY HORSE (EW/VALUE OF THE DAY)
11- CAP DE JOIE
6- SAINT BATHANS
SKY HORSE has showed a real liking to heavy going. (6:3-1-0) record on heavy tracks, she is dropping in grade from her last start and has drawn barrier 1 so gets a soft run on speed. CAP DE JOIE has resumed well. She has won 2 of 3 starts this prep and one of those in the heavy, willing to risk her here due to the fact she will be looking to get back and run on. That may be a big task to make up ground on a bottomless track. SAINT BATHANS was 1L off winning the Seymour Cup last start and has been in good form. Has won 2 other starts on heavy tracks so expect he won’t mind the wet conditions.
Race 3
1- MR MAESTRO
2- RED SUN SENSATION
5- MURAMASA
This race is some what of a mini preview of The Derby with a few of these looking to head there next. The fave MR MAESTRO should be hard to beat again. He goes for 3 in a row now and has continued to improve since rising in trip. At the 2000m for the first time today and is in super form. RED SUN SENSATION was 2nd behind the fave in their last start. His form prior was consistent, but he needs to find a bit more luck in this to win. MURAMASA has been scratched multiple times of late looking for a suitable race and will now go out to the 2000m for the 1st time. He is very lightly raced and has good potential.
Race 4
1- MOKO
7- FOXY CLEOPATRA
8- WHAKAMANA
MOKO gets a good chance to improve here now that she rises to the 2000m. Think she is well suited to more distance. She has got through the heavy going well both other times she has found a wet track. While she is still a maiden, she has run well and placed in stronger races. FOXY CLEOPATRA was an impressive last start winner. If she runs up to that form she should be hard to beat but the unknown around her is how she will go on the heavy ground. WHAKAMANA is a winner on a heavy track previously so won’t have issues with the track conditions. She showed last start that she is capable of staying at a longer trip.
Race 5
8- EPONYMOUS
12- ANGRY SKIES
1- COUNTTHEHEADLIGHTS
Tricky race here, was impressed by how EPONYMOUS was finishing off last start at Moonee Valley. He almost run down the leader against the bias. Like him here with some more room to work with and going up to the 1400m, just can’t afford to give them too much of a head start. ANGRY SKIES won his maiden on a heavy track at Swan Hill and then was unlucky next start. Proven in the wet is a positive. If he has luck late and gets a clear run, he will be around the mark late. Can make a case for COUNTTHEHEADLIGHTS at big odds if he can recapture some of his previous form. He was contesting Group 1 level races last prep on heavy tracks. This is easier than those runs so at his best he may threaten.
Race 6
1- MILEVA
6- ROSE QUARTZ
14- NEVERSTANDINGSTILL
MILEVA was 7th last start in a Group 1 but was also only 5L off the winner. This is a much easier race than her last few starts, so she will appreciate the drop in grade and she has a good record here at Caulfield, especially this track/distance (2:2-0-0). She has shown from hermonly other start on a heavy track that she will handle the conditions. Expect ROSE QUARTZ can be an improver now 2nd up. Last start she didn’t look suited and now She gets to her preferred distance where she has never missed the placings. NEVERSTANDINGSTILL has been well supported early and is proven in these wet conditions having won both her 2 other starts on a heavy.
Race 7
9- DRAGONSTONE
6- EXPRESS PASS
11- ASFOORA
DRAGONSTONE resumes off the back of some impressive trial work. He has a good 1st up record and is super effective on a heavy track (6:1-3-1). He has some strong form references from his last prep. If he resumes close to what he was producing last prep, expect him to be tough to beat. EXPRESS PASS is another resuming runner, he usually flys when he is fresh (6:2-1-3). Expect him to be around the mark if he handles the heavy going and does look a good EW play. ASFOORA hasn’t done much wrong to date having won 4 of her 6 career starts. She was horribly unlucky in her last start when held up badly with a lot to give. Talented and capable, only query is the heavy going.
Race 8
13- PRIDE OF JENNI
9- CHAIN OF LIGHTNING
8- ARGENTIA
This is a super open race and I don’t have a lot between more than just these 3 runner. Think it might come down to who handles the going best. PRIDE OF JENNI on top, like the fact that she has won on a heavy track before, she will push forwards and give herself every chance from the speed, not worried about the wide barrier as expecting that by this time of the meeting, runners will potentially be fanning wide. CHAIN OF LIGHTNING has been impressive to date. She won 5 in a row prior to a 3rd last start here in similar conditions, query is that heavy track and if she doesn’t want it too wet again. ARGENTIA faded late when 1st up. She will be fitter now and expecting natural improvement. She is a class runner, only query here is a wet track.
Race 9
17- SMOKIN ROMANS
3- KNIGHTS ORDER
9- ALEGRON
Really hard to look past the in form SMOKIN ROMANS here today. He has been absolutely flying in his last few starts. Handles a heavy track and has a low weight on his back, so expect he will be travelling well late. Gets the trip no worries and has a perfect barrier to land behind the leaders and be finishing off best to win. KNIGHTS ORDER goes well on the heavy tracks (5:2-1-1) and will be a likely leader which potentially is a huge advantage. He was only 1.7L off the fave when they met last start, if the track begins to have a leader bias that may be what gives him the upper hand today. Like ALEGRON rising to the 2400m 3rd up here today, he has done his best work out at further trips so a 2400m race in testing conditions should suit him.
Race 10
5- BANDERSNATCH
11- AEGON
16- LADY OF HONOUR
BANDERSNATCH here in the last. Expecting the track will be well cut up by this stage of the meeting and he is the one that will handle the going best (6:2-1-1). He was 1.2L off I Wish I Win and Ayrton last start and that is a good enough form reference for this. AEGON was competing in much stronger races here in Australia last prep before returning to NZ. This should be a lot easier than recent runs and NZ runners have a handy record of running well when the arrive here 1st up. LADY OF HOUNOR has been good this prep. Won 3 starts back and has placed at Group 2 level in her previous 2 starts. This is a slight drop in grade and only question on her is the wet track and how she will handle it.