Caulfield, Saturday 17/9
Conditions - Soft
Race 1
12- PRES DE TOI
3- FENGARADA
8- HEAD OF STATE
This is a tough way to kick off the day, probably leaning towards watching this one to see how the track is playing rather than have a bet. PRES DE TOI is in strong recent form and will be light at the weights for this. She is a last start winner over this trip and won in a similar grade to this last start at a short price. FENGARADA is on a good streak having won 3 in a row prior to this. He will be praying for rain as he has a superb record on the heavy tracks, if there is rain and the track is quite wet, he is the one. HEAD OF STATE can be inconsistent but has shown superb talent previously. If he can find his bets here he is a big chance.
Race 2
6- XTRAVAGANT STAR (BEST OF DAY)
1- CANNONBALL
4- PORT ALBERT
XTRAVAGANT STAR resumes here after a very successful 1st up prep. She won at listed level before contesting at Group level. She has been trialling super prior to this and is looking sharp. Looks like she will get a good run and be hard to hold out. CANNONBALL was 4th here when resuming at Group level against strong company. He looked plain last start but should be an improver returning back to Victoria where he has been more successful. PORT ALBERT is still a maiden, but the races he contested in his 1st prep were at a strong level. Trial form has been strong, he may return here as an improved product.
Race 3
5- PRIDE OF JENNI
6- ZOUZARELLA
9- ADELE AMOUR
PRIDE OF JENNI was pretty good when contesting a much tougher race when 1st up. This is a sharp drop back in grade and she will rise in distance here to the 1400m which should be much more suitable. ZOUZARELLA is coming out of the same 1st up race as PRIDE OF JENNI, she didn’t exactly get an ideal run but should be much better suited here. She is a Group level performer and might have the extra class over these if she finds her best. ADELE AMOUR resumes, she is a proven 1st up performer and is undefeated from 3 other starts over this trip, worth consideration.
Race 4
2- AFT CABIN
1- OSIPENKO
4- MERIDIUS
Expecting AFT CABIN will be hard to beat here today. He was a blistering winner 2 starts back before placing in a Group 3. He goes back up to the 1400m which is what looks like he is much better suited to. Will be very hard to hold out late with clear running. OSIPENKO comes down from NSW to resume in this today. The form from his first 2 career runs is good, he is a bit of an unknown but from a smart stable, wouldn’t surprise in this. MERIDIUS was really finishing off nicely last start over the 1200m. He gets up to the 1400m today which looks ideal for him.
Race 5
10- PROSCENIUM ARCH (EW/VALUE OF DAY)
4- RUSSIAN CONQUEST
5- BOOGIE DANCER
Thought PROSCENIUM ARCH cost herself the race when she did a bit wrong late in her last start. Expect she can definitely improve and she is drawn to get a soft run. Willing to take the risk at her double figure odds. RUSSIAN CONQUEST is 2nd up here today, she should really appreciate coming off heavy tracks and will be hoping for not too much rain. Won 2nd up in her first prep,before competing at Group 1 level, should be better suited here. BOOGIE DANCER is a runner in form. Forgiving the last start where she didn’t look to appreciate the Moonee Valley track. Prior to that she beat Berkeley square who came out and won last weekend, but the query is where she gets from the wide barrier.
Race 6
8- CRYSTAL PEGASUS
1- GOOD TRIP
2- EARLSWOOD
A lot of factors point to an improved showing by CRYSTAL PEGASUS here today. He comes off a heavy onto a better track, but also is 2nd up. He has never won when 1st up so usually takes a run to get going into a prep. He also gets to the 2000m trip where he has an impressive 7:5-1-0 record. GOLD TRIP should also take improvement out of a 1st up race when making his Australian debut. The stable have opted to run here vs a race in Sydney and rising to 2000m really suits. He is a big chance of finding his best form which might be hard to beat. EARLSWOOD was a winner here 2 starts back, he didn’t look to appreciate the Moonee Valley track last start and now rises to the 2000m where he has won 2/2.
Race 7
8- AYRTON
10- SHOWMANSHIP
18- I WISH I WIN **SCRATCHED**
Todays feature Group 1 race is a super open race stacked with runners who are in form. Given its so open, keen to chase some value with AYRTON. Willing to take the risk on him at a larger price considering he has a lot in his favour here today. Hits this fresh and is 3/3 when 1st up and he is also 3/3 when over this same track/distance. Only knock is going to be how wet the track gets as he is a bit of an unknown on wet tracks. But at the price I’m willing to take the risk. SHOWMANSHIP has an impressive winning record and rarely runs a bad race. Expect he will be in the mix here today. He was won 4/4 over a 1400m trip and has won on good, soft and heavy tracks. He is super adaptable and knows how to win. I WISH I WIN bolted in to win her Australian debut. She is currently and emergency runner for this race and potentially doesn’t get a run. But she looks a good type based on what she displayed last start and if she does get into the field,is a genuine chance.
Race 8
4- CHAIN OF LIGHTNING
3- ARGENTIA **SCRATCHED**
2- ZAPATEO
Hard to look past CHAIN OF LIGHTNING winning her 6th in a row here today. She won a sharp race here 2 starts back beating a handy field including Passive Aggressive and Kissonallforcheeks who has since franked the form winning. Drawn a wide barrier but if it is wet, that might put her in a better spot in the track. ARGENTIA resumes today and is a strong 1st up performer and likes the track here at Caulfield. She has class but the query on her is how wet the track gets. She would prefer to be in a dry surface. ZAPATEO should find this easier than the race she contested last start when running in behind Eduardo. She will also appreciate coming off a heavy track and onto a soft as she has a much better record on this ground.
Race 9
3- PRINCE OF BOOM
9- IT’SOURTIME
1- IN THE BOAT
PRINCE OF BOOM should take improvement from his 1st up run down here in Victoria. He had excuses and I’m expecting him to a appreciate a track like Caulfield much more than The Valley. He is a strong 2nd up performer and is much better suited here today, expecting improvement at the least. IT’SOURTIME resumes here, he has a super 1st up record (3:2-1-0) and does like the track here at Caulfield. IN THE BOAT was in super form last prep, if he can recapture that form, expect he is more than capable here today. He might look to lead and should find a nice position. He will probably hope the track doesn’t get to wet though as he seems to do his best on a good track.