Flemington, Melbourne Cup, Tuesday, 1/11
Conditions - Soft 7
Race 1
1- ZULFIQAR
9- AWESTRUCK
4- EXPOSITION
Leaning on race experience for this first race which is down the straight. There isn’t a lot of exposed race form, but ZULFIQAR has not only raced down this track, but he has won here and that looks the best form for this. AWESTRUCK was an expensive yearling and has had some good trials prior to this. Drawn next to the fave so maps to track it everywhere it goes and be in a good position through the run. EXPOSITION is from a super trainer/jockey combination and shouldn’t be discounted.
Race 2
7- WHITE MARLIN (BEST OF DAY)
9- CABOCHE
3- TEAM CAPTAIN
WHITE MARLIN looks exceptionally hard to beat here today. He is an undefeated UK import who has been building nicely in his 2 starts here in Australia. He is going to appreciate rising in trip again today and his recent form has been franked when he beat The Peninsula Cup winner easily last start. Think he wins today, and will run in The Melbourne Cup come 2023. CABOCHE is placed at Group 1 level. The 2800m trip looks like it should suit him and we know he will handle wet ground if conditions worsen. TEAM CAPTAIN was aimed at todays big race but didn’t make the cut. If he finds his best form, he should run well here and is a winner over this track/distance.
Race 3
5- STRUCK BY
4- ASCENSION
10- THE CUNNING FOX
STRUCK BY is a proven winner when 2nd up in a prep (3:2-0-0) and has good early speed and drawn to perfection. He should be every chance here today as he will find a nice run. ASCENSION is the current race fave, he does rise in grade today, but will appreciate the wet track conditions, and he is 3:3-0-0 when 3rd up. THE CUNNING FOX ran some really strong races in his last prep and has a good record here at Flemington. He has been trialling well but the 1400m might be a bit too sharp for him, follow him out of this race when he gets to a further trip later this prep.
Race 4
12- QUANG TRI
3- DASHING
7- COOL KAAP
QUANG TRI should prove to be super hard to beat here if she can continue the strong form she has been in early in her career. She showed good fight when winning in tough conditions last start. The wet track shouldn’t be a concern and 1800m will suit her. She will prove very hard to beat. The form lines that DASHING will bring into this race are probably the most impressive. He was 1.6L behind the winner of a Group 1 2 starts back, and then not far away on a sharp race at Group 2 level next start. This is a drop in grade which he will appreciate, but the coming back in distance is a small query on him today. COOL KAAP is only very lightly raced, but he gets out to a trip here which looks like it will really suit him and gives him every chance to be a big improver
Race 5
1- CROSSWINDS (EW/VALUE OF THE DAY)
5- ALPHA FLIGHT
3- LASCARS
This race down the straight is a exceptionally open one. Playing for value, so we can play CROSSWINDS at a good each way price. He resumed in a strong Group 3 race and this looks a much easier field than that last start. He is drawn out wide which if the track is wet as expected, may put him in the best position on the outside rail. SA visitor ALPHA FLIGHT is the current race fave and has had early market support which is a strong indicator. He hasn’t missed the placings in his 7 career starts and has a win on a heavy track, so will adapt to any conditions, but he may be a risk down the straight for the 1st time. LASCARS has Flemington straight track form which sometimes can be the difference. He is 3:0-2-0 down the straight track.
Race 6
4- NONAME LANE
8- BERMADEZ
1- JUST FOLK
The recent form of NONAME LANE is too hard to ignore and if he can continue that, he will again be amongst them late. He was a winner of the Balaklava Cup, which is proving a strong form reference in SA, he then won The Seymour Cup and form has since been franked out of that race. 2.8L off them next start in a sharp Group 1. He will handle this trip with a soft on speed run which he maps to get. BERMADEZ will appreciate a wet track here. He usually runs well here at Flemington and only know will be the trip. JUST FOLK has been 2nd in his last 2 runs. Chased home NONAME LANE in The Seymour Cup before running just behind a nice horse next start. He won’t need much to change to improve in those efforts and if the track gets to a heavy he will be suited.
Race 7
8- DEAUVILLE LEGEND
3- KNIGHTS ORDER
19- SMOKIN ROMANS
The Melbourne Cup has a lot of factors that could chance the outcome of the race and it is a lot more open than how it looks on paper. DEAUVILLE LEGEND is the race fave. He is an import who profiles exceptionally well for this race. He will stay the trip and draws a perfect barrier. A knock on him could be how wet the track gets, as he is untested on a heavy surface. As it stands he is a super chance and looks the best horse here, I wouldn’t be backing him at his current price, if you can get $5 on the day and the track is still at a soft, he is a play. If the rain comes and we get to a heavy track, it’s KNIGHTS ORDER who looks best placed. He was the winner of The Sydney Cup and he is proven at this trip (3:2-0-0) and goes well on rain effected ground. The key for him will be if he finds the lead, he might get a soft run and on wet ground will take some catching. SMOKIN ROMANS has been forgotten by the market, he jumped as the fave for The Caulfield Cup and didn’t get the run that he needed in that race. His form prior to that was super, he comes from a stable who has a super track record with stayers. He can be forgiven for the last start run, and might be over the odds today. Cases can also be made for MONTEFILIA, WITHOUT A FIGHT and REALM OF FLOWERS, and those shouldn’t be left out of multiples.
Race 8
7- THE GARDEN
6- MINSK MOMENT
13-DETONATOR JACK
THE GARDEN is a super consistent gelding who was super in his last start here after he was held up at the start. He draws an inside barrier here today, so expect him to push forwards and be much more prominent. He is a tick at this trip, in the wet conditions and maps well, still getting a good EW price for him. MINSK MOMENT won a good race last start at a short price and retains McDonald for the ride who he has a good association with. He is proven on a wet track but might be a small query from a wider barrier if he gets caught out too wide and has extra work to do. DETONATOR JACK has a super record for a lightly raced runner. He is placed at Group 1 level and has the potential to be a really smart runner. He is a chance here, but I’m expecting he will improve into this prep as he gets further out in distance.
Race 9
9- SHE’S ALL CLASS
1- PROMISE OF SUCCESS
10- DECENT RAINE
SHE’S ALL CLASS doesn’t have the strongest record and does need to improve, but he has recent form at Group level in stronger races that might hold up against this field. 3rd behind Argentia who came out and won Saturday, and was 2nd in a strong race in August. Today might be her day. PROMISE OF SUCCESS was a winner in a nice race last start. She has a super record over this trip never missing the top 2 in 4 starts. She will also be suited to a wet track. Only risk is the race map as she might be a danger of getting caught deep on the rail. DECENT RAINE is 3rd up here today, she generally improves as she gets deeper into a prep and has a good record at this distance as well as a win over this track/distance.
Race 10
11- ZETHUS
10- NICOLINI VITO
14- PIONEER RIVER
ZETHUS was 3rd in a similar race to this last start. It ended up to be no match for his stable mate. He profiles to really appreciate the Flemington straight track and given he draws wide, that may be the best part of the track come the last race here today. NICOLINI VITO was 2nd in the race with ZETHUS last start. How wet the track sets will be his only concern, but he has been a winner down the straight before. PIONEER RIVER represents good value in this. He is a straight track specialist with a record of (6:3-1-0) over this track/distance. A really wet track is the only query.
Quaddie
1,3,4,6,8,19,24
6,7,10,13
1,3,9,10
10,11
$224 = 100%
