Flemington, Saturday, 14/5
Conditions - Soft
Race 1
6- DOULL
10- ROYAL SIGNAL
2- NOTHING SILLY
As a very expensive young horse, you would expect that the camp of DOULL have him really ready to go here and at his best to win here on debut. His trials have looked sound including a Flemington win. Think he is easily the best of the debutants here today. ROYAL SIGNAL won her debut race and takes what looks a step up now. She showed good early speed in that win which may serve her well over this trip. Including NOTHING SILLY who probably has the most experience in the field but most importantly has run down the Flemington straight previously and it can be awkward for horses doing it for the first time.
Race 2
5- NO WAY EVER
3- COMMANDS THE FIELD
4- MOON AND BACK
Another one down the straight today, and found this one pretty tough. Though NO WAY EVER was strong in her last start 4th considering she endured a wide run without cover. That was a sharp race and she stuck on well. She is light at the weight which may be a big help late. COMMANDS THE FIELD has been in form this prep having placed in her last 6 starts which included a win. She was strong in her last start which was probably a tougher race than what she finds here today. Similar to the runner in the last race, MOON AND BACK has been down the Flemington straight recently and that could be a good advantage.
Race 3
1- CARLISLE
7- FLASH FEELING
5- SONORA
CARLISE has strung together 2 nice wins in his previous runs and looks well placed for a 3rd win in a row. He draws well and should get a good run up on the speed, his only other 4th up run ever he won. FLASH FEELING comes out of the same last race as CARLISLE. He looked like he had his chance at the top of the straight but couldn’t really get going. Potentially he didn’t appreciate how wet the ground was and his form prior to that run was strong including only being 1.5L off one of the favoured runners in the SA Derby. SONOARA also out of the same last start race, will be back and going home strongly but probably gave up too much ground last start. Will be a threat late if she is with them at the top of the straight.
Race 4
10- ADELE AMOUR
2- BUTTER CHICKEN
4- SAIGON
ADELE AMOUR comes of a good run in a tough race last start at Caulfield. She comes back in distance to the 1400m where I think she is much better suited having won 2/2. Draws well and should be every chance. BUTTER CHICKEN resumes from a spell, she was competing at a good level prior to the break but didn’t quite find her best form. If she is at her best here today she will be a big chance. SAIGON just went down last start in a good race. Was tough conditions and thought she was super, rises to 1400m will suit as she has good form over this trip. Draws wide like last start which is the only downside.
Race 5
12- COOLTH
15- BARETTA
1- TYPHOON HARMONY
COOLTH was a bit unlucky when resuming, he was getting held up down the straight before finding space and flashing home late. Rising to the 1600m suits him and he has won multiple times at this trip. Forgiving BARETTA for his last start 6th at Sale, believe that he had a couple issues so thinking he can be an improver here at a nice price. Thought the win on Aus debut at Pakenham was super. TYPHOON HARMONY is a consistent type having only missed the placings 3 times in his career. He will put in a good effort and think he is better suited to the 1600m trip.
Race 6
6- STAR OF CHAOS (EW/VALUE OF DAY)
9- ARRAN BAY
10- DEPRIVATION
The stable opt to run STAR OF CHAOS here rather than a listed level race at Morphettville which I think shows good intentions. The runs this prep have all been good and she draws a nice barrier which should see her get a good run. She can push up on the speed from that barrier and will be light at the weights. Won her 3rd up start last prep as well. ARRAN BAY is lightly raced and has been consistent across those runs. He was ok when resuming but think he will be an improver for having had that run and being 2nd up now, another who should be flying late with a low weight. DEPRIVATION maps as the likely leader and should get that run soft enough and will be the one to catch, has placed in all 4 starts this prep including a solid run here at the track.
Race 7
2- LUNCIES
8- THROUGH IRISH EYES
1- WARNING
Very open race and so it should be as the winner of this will win a spot in the 2022 Melbourne Cup. It’s very open so I’m going to have a look at value in LUNCIES, he is coming off a campaign in Sydney that was all on heavy ground which I don’t think suited him. He was also unlucky drawing wide barriers through that campaign, so back on better ground today I think he can find his best. Will get the 2800m trip with out troubles. THROUGH IRISH EYES comes from a stable who are known for having their stayers ready for grand final runs, and think they have aimed him at this. He was 2nd last start but meets the winner of that race better at the weights today. WARNING has a good record here at the track and can maybe be forgiven for his last start where he didn’t look like he appreciated the heavy surface and he tends to improve as he gets fitter into preps.
Race 8
17- TRIPLE MISSILE (BEST OF DAY)
3- MORVADA
16- AQUAGIRL
TRIPLE MISSILE ran on really well for his last start considering it was on a heavy surface and that’s the first time he has come up against one. He comes back to a good surface today which suits and he will get room down the Flemington straight to produce a big finish. MORVADA has been in good form recently over in SA, particularly last start where he won well over the 1400m. He has good form here at Flemington and over the 1400m. Only slight query is the wide barrier as he may have to work from there to find the lead. AQUAGIRL draws for a good on speed run, she is light at the weights and a usually runs well when 2nd up.
Race 9
1- DOSH
2- HOW WOMANTIC
11- WHIPCRACKER WAY
DOSH resumes today, looks well placed having had wins when fresh and has won down the straight here previously. She has been consistent in her short career and she looks really well placed here. HOW WOMANTIC hasn’t won for a while now, but most of her best form has been when she is fresh and she is 1st up here today. Conditions here today should suit and she should be every chance. WHIPCRACKER WAY was 2nd last start in a similar grade race and will be at a light weight here which may be a big advantage. He usually runs better on a soft surface and think he is a chance to find those conditions in the last race of the day.
Quaddie
5,6,9,10
1,2,8,11
17
1,2,11,13
