Flemington, Saturday, 18/6
Conditions - Soft
Race 1
1- PORT GUILLAUME
4- PESTO
7- SARACEN KNIGHT
PORT GUILLAUME ran well last start when resuming from let up. The rise in trip will suit him and with expected wet conditions, he should be well suited. PESTO has improved this prep once he has reached a staying trip. Again he has a light weight which will serve him well late and he can run well in these conditions. SARACEN KNIGHT is the one who looks most likely to handle the heavy conditions if the track remains in that conditions. 3rd up today so should be fit enough to get this distance now.
Race 2
2- DIAMONDS
8- GRAND POPE
9- RIGEL STAR
DIAMONDS steps up in grade after a last start win here down the straight. Thought she found all sorts of trouble early in that run before she got clear and finished off really well. She will carry a similar weight here and if she gets a clearer run early,and is at her best, should prove hard to hold out. GRAND POPE was 3rd behind DIAMONDS in the same last race here. Similar to DIAMONDS, he found a lot of trouble early on, drawn out wide today so may improve with a clearer run. RIGEL STAR resumes here today, has won 2/4 1st up runs and genuinely looks good fresh.
Race 3
1- ATLANTIS TYCOON
7- CONCENTRIC
9- CHARMING DI
ATLANTIS TYCOON was a winner on debut in a pretty sharp 2yo race. He still did a few things wrong so has room to improve and the rise in distance should suit him. Can make a case for CONCENTRIC at decent odds, map the other runners in the race to be slower than him. So think there is potential for him to get a soft run up on the speed and he can put himself into a strong position at EW odds. CHARMING DI won his maiden well in similar conditions to what he is expected to come up against today. He won the maiden in some sharp time, but have a small query that this tougher and the wide barrier isn’t ideal.
Race 4
2- QUINTELLO
1- SIRILEO MISS
7- AMERICAIN ANGEL
QUINTELLO is coming off 2 really handy runs in NSW. Both runs were at a good level and in testing conditions. She looks well placed as she can win in these wet conditions and over this distance, only knock is the wide barrier and if she gets caught wide. SIRILEO MISS drop back both in grade and distance which should suit. Her record over the 1400m is clearly where she does her best work (7:3-3-). Maps for a gun run on speed and only question mark is how she handles a heavy weight on a wet track. AMERICAIN ANGEL is super consistent, but a perennial 2nd place getter. She goes well on a wet track and has a 2nd up win. Would be fitting if she was to win this weekend after the passing of her great sire.
Race 5
1- STAR PATROL
8- PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE
4- KARACASU
2 in form runners meet each other here down the straight for this. Have gone with STAR PATROL on top for this based on he has been down the straight over the 1200m recently. That win was huge and in a sharp time. PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE next, she is looking for her 4th consecutive career win, yet to taste defeat and proven in this conditions. KARACASU comes over from SA and is having his first look down the straight. He was looking a bit out of form then dropped in grade and won well last start. He is proven at Group and Listed class, so his peak performance would be good enough for this if he can find it.
Race 6
1- TOO CLOSE THE SUN (BEST OF DAY)
5- WINNING PARTNER
10- TURN ON THE CHARM
Pretty keen TOO CLOSE THE SUN here, he looks really well placed for a 1st up run and gets ideal conditions. Goes well on wet tracks (either soft or heavy), he has a good 1st up record and is drawn favourably for a horse that wants to be on speed. His WA form is not far off some very handy types. WINNING PARTNER should take improvement out of the 1st up race 2 weeks back. She was 10th but not that far behind the winners. Has previously shown improvement in 2nd up runs. TURN ON THE CHARM is having his Australian debut, need to respect these runners coming over from Europe, they can produce 1st up so a win wouldn’t surprise.
Race 7
3- NATURAL MYSTIC
6- OCEANA BLUE
5- SECRET GLAMOUR
ATURAL MYSTIC was a winner over this track & distance 2 starts back and think he can be forgiven for his last start where he had to work after drawing a wide barrier. Is in a much better spot here today so expecting to see the improvement with a more economical run from a better barrier. OCEANA BLUE won well on debut and has placed in both runs this prep since resuming. He was every chance last start when 2nd, clearly has talent but just want to see how he can handle a staying trip around the 2000m for the first time. SECRET GLAMOUR chased home NATURAL MYSTIC for 2nd here over the same track and distance last start. She is consistent and should be around the mark late.
Race 8
5- SIR DAVY
7- VISINARI
8- TUVALU
Most open race of the day, have a few clashing form lines to work with though. Like the price you can get about SIR DAVY who has been in serious form winning 4 in a row now and looking for a 5th. He beat home race fave VISINARI when they met at Caulfield. Hard for me to see that being turned around here as VISINARI will have to carry a higher weight this time due to the fact he had a recent win and backs up quickly for this now, SIR DAVY’s wider barrier is my only query between the 2. TUVALU is another in form runner who has been running at a stronger grade than the others and might be the best horse. He has a poor barrier which I think may be his undoing though. A lot of speed is inside him so he needs to be perfect at the jump and maybe some luck as well.
Race 9
2- EXPRESS PASS
11- ZAC DE BOSS
1- FREE OF DEBT
Looks a perfect race for EXPRESS PASS to kick off his campaign. He is 1st up, has never missed the placings from 6 other 1st up runs which includes 2 wins. Suited in the wet conditions but just loves it here at Flemington (9:2-1-3). ZAC DE BOSS was a winner at this track/distance last start. Draws a wide barrier which I think will be an advantage later on in the day. SA visitor FREE OF DEBT drops sharply in grade off his last couple of starts at Group level including a Group 3 win. He will handle the wet conditions and has had a win down the straight previously which helps.
Quaddie
1,4,5,8,10
3,5,6
5,7,8,9
1,2,7,8,11
