Flemington, Saturday, 6/4

Conditions - Heavy

Race 1

9- PESTO

4- MASERARTIE BAY

1- WARNING

PESTO is stepping up in grade here today off the back of a super win over this track/distance last start. Had to work from out wide that day and still managed a win, drawn much better here today and will come in light at the weights. MASERARTIE BAY rates really well in this, he has previously won at this grade and should get the distance. Only question mark on him today is how he will handle the soft/heavy ground, if the track conditions continue to improve, I give him a better chance. WARNING is dropping in grade from his recent runs, he tends to improve when he gets to this stage of a prep and has won at this track/distance previously.

Race 2

2- DUSSE

1- BOUND FOR HOME

5- GHAANATI

Leaning towards runners who have had race experience coming into this. The 2 runners I’m leaning towards have the race experience and both have previous wins. DUSSE was a winner in her last start at Geelong, she ran 2nd on debut in a sharp race so thinking she can really figure in this. BOUND FOR HOME looked relish the heavy track conditions when winning on debut and it is expected to be wet here again today which may suit her. GHAANATI is the debutant I can give the best chance to. She is trained here at the track so assuming she has probably seen the straight and it shouldn’t be a foreign experience.

Race 3

1- AGREEABLE

4- AMERICAIN ANGEL

3- BUTTER CHICKEN

This looks like it’s AGEEABLE’S race to loose today. She dropped in class when resuming and won that in similar conditions as this today. She runs well 1st & 2nd up and should still be in good condition for this. Rate her highly in this field. AMERICAIN ANGEL is resuming here today, she usually runs a strong race 1st up and her record fresh is 3:0-3-0 she is super consistent across all conditions and looks the main danger here. BUTTER CHICKEN hasnt managed to find the form that she showed in her earlier preps. She has been contesting tough races of late so the drop in grade and 2nd up here should benefit her.

Race 4

2- ELZAMEE (BEST OF DAY)

3- NATURAL MYSTIC

4- ALVERDUN

Think ELZAMEE’S form of late has been very strong, the field he beat in his last start was strong and many of them went on to be in the market of The SA Derby. The run prior can be forgiven as it was a super sharp race and he really looked to struggle in the super heavy going, don’t expect it to be that wet here today. NATURAL MYSTIC has yet to put a foot wrong having won both career runs to date. He stepped up in grade after winning the maiden and won that as well. This again is another step up in grade but the wide barrier does him no favours. ALVERDUN at the EW looks good value, he has a consistent record and will be racing on the speed, the fact he has a light weight may help him run this out at a good tempo.

Race 5

6- DIAMONDS

13- RED HOT NICC

15- MASK UP

DIAMONDS is dropping down in grade from his recent runs in Adelaide. Like the fact he has seen the straight previously and putting him on top for this thinking that he may get the perfect run down on the outside rail if the track is beginning to wear due to the forecasted wet conditions. RED HOT NICC has been in super form this prep having placed in his past 5 including 1 win. He was close to the win in a very similar race to this last start down the straight and is probably drawn in the better part of the track as well. MASK UP is only lightly raced and hasn’t done much wrong to date. Went down the straight last start which he will take benefit from.

Race 6

10- KISSINGER

1- DUKE OF PLYMPTON

8- RUEBER

Perfect conditions for KISSINGER, he runs well on a soft track (5:3-1-0) and usually begins to peak in form the deeper he gets, is 3rd up here today. DUKE OF PLYMPTON does all of his best work on wet tracks, so think he can figure in these conditions and especially if more rain comes it really brings him into it. He should be fit enough now to cover the 2000m trip. RUEBER has found good form this prep having won 2/3 starts this time in work but is stepping up in grade here today so will need to be at his best but will appreciate the conditions.

Race 7

5- LITERARY MAGNATE

8- CARDINAL GEM

3- JIMMY THE BEAR

LITERARY MAGNATE doesn’t have the winning strike rate she probably deserves as she has spent majority of the early parts of her career contesting Group and a listed races. The drop in grade this prep has seen her do some good things but has also found her bad luck and she gets some here again with a wide barrier. If she can bring the class she is capable of producing she will go well again. CARDINAL GEM is the current race fave and has placed in both races this prep. He has found himself in winning positions but just have a couple doubts about how he goes on wet tracks. JIMMY THE BEAR beat home CARDINAL GEM last start here over this track/distance, that was a super effort considering the wide run he endured and needs a repeat performance here.

Race 8

3- HARBOUR VIEWS (EW/VALUE OF DAY)

1- CHERRY TORTONI

15- IT’SOURTIME

HARBOUR VIEWS looks ideally placed here to put in a big performance 1st up. He usually runs well when fresh (4:3-0-1) and has the same record over this distance. He likes it here at Flemington and should produce strongly fresh. CHERRY TORTONI we know will relish these conditions. He has never missed the quinella on a soft surface and the wide open Flemington track always gives him his best chance. IT’SOURTIME was unlucky in the run last start only finding space late and flashing home. He has been well supported in both of his recent runs but hasn’t managed a win. Happiest beginning to be hard to follow at short odds.

Race 9

6- TREPORTI

9- PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE

5- SQUID GAME

TREPORTI chased home a potential star in his last start down the straight track. He has shown to like the track which may help him here and he has previously done some of his best work when 2nd up which he is today. A lot may depend on how the straight track is playing from the inside as that’s where he has drawn. PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE is a big watch here today. She has won both of her career starts in good fashion and this is another step up in grade now where we might get to see what exactly she could be capable of vs the stronger competition. SQUID GAME has won here down the Flemington straight previously. Looked a really good type when winning the first few of his career and his best would be good enough.

Quaddie

1,4,5,6,7,8,10

3,5,7,8

1,3

1,2,5,6,9