Moonee Valley Saturday 20/8
Conditions - Soft
Race 1
1- VA VIA
8- LITTLE MISS KUBI
9- MISS SUBTLY
VA VIA resumed here running into 3rd, expecting she will take improvement out of that run and should appreciate a rise in distance to the 1200m now. Her best here should be too good based on times vs the field. LITTLE MISS KUBI was a debut winner a fortnight ago on a heavy track, she appreciated those tough conditions and will now step up in grade. There is pace drawn around here so she may find an ideal spot in behind leaders but can’t afford to get caught wide here at the valley. MISS SUBTLY has produced 2 solid runs in her short career so far, she has early speed and a good barrier which should see her lob in a strong position and give herself every chance again.
Race 2
7- PROSCENIUM ARCH
5- BLAKMAX
4- CASTILLIAN
All 3 of these selections come out of the same last start race at Flemington and it looks the key form reference. PROSCENIUM ARCH profiles as a type who will go well here at The Valley. When she won on debut she pushed forwards and couldn’t be caught. Expect her to run a similar race here coming out of barrier 2. A returning star jockey on top should also help. BLAKMAX found himself in a winning position last start at Flemington but was run over the top of late. He should be better suited here and if he finds a similar position again he should figure in the finish. CASTILLIAN shaded all others but the winner in the last start, Flemington gave him every chance that day and he will need some more luck here but recent form is strong.
Race 3
1- FORGOT YOU
8- SHOT OF IRISH
3- LACKEEN
FORGOT YOU had a super last prep, he was competitive at Group 1 level including a Group 1 3rd placing behind Hitotsu before he was near last in The Australian Derby where it looked as he didn’t appreciate a very heavy track. He was spelled after that tough run and the lead up trials prior to this have looked very good, potentially has too much class for some of these others. SHOT OF IRISH resumes today, has won 1st up multiple times and has a win here at the track, key for him here today though is his record on heavy tracks (8:5-1-0) if the conditions don’t improve, expect him to be the runner who handles the going best. LACKEEN is a last start winner here at The Valley winning easily in a strong level race. He was well backed that day and has again been well backed early here.
Race 4
7- MIMI’S AWARD
8- DUKE OF HASTINGS
1- HERMAN HESSE
Scratchings of a pair of key runners has opened this race up a lot more now. MIMI’S AWARD has been super close placing in her previous 4 starts (Lost after a protest 2 starts back). She can see out this 2500m trip easily and has options from barrier 3 today. Expecting she will be strong late thanks to a 3kg claim bringing her right down at the weights. DUKE OF HASTINGS has showed improvement when coming up through the grades and rising in distance. He won on a heavy track earlier this prep so conditions shouldn’t trouble him here today. Rising to the 2500m should suit HERMAN HESSE. Rated highly in this and expect he finds a good run in the front half of the field, only query around him today is how he will handle a wet track.
Race 5
5- FOUJITA SAN (BEST OF DAY)
3- CROSSWINDS
2- EL PADRINO
This looks a race all about FOUJITA SAN today. He has seen the track before when placed on debut, but showed his potential when he smashed them at Sandown at a short price next start. He ran that in a super impressive time showing the talent he may have. He has been given more time to develop and should lob in a smart position from barrier 3. CROSSWINDS is another resuming runner. Undefeated from both his career starts including winning here at Moonee Valley over the same trip. That was an impressive win making up ground but this is a tougher assignment 1st up. EL PADRINO maps to lead them up early, he can handle a heavy track and will be in that prominent position so expect he will take some catching.
Race 6
5- DIRTY DEEDS
6- MAYFAIR SPIRIT
2- DO YOU RECKON
DIRTY DEEDS wasn’t far off when 6th last start in a stronger race at Flemington. In previous preps he has showed improvement the deeper he gets into a prep and he will be 3rd up for this today and he goes well on a heavy track. MAYFAIR SPIRIT is very similar in the fact he comes into this 3rd up now and has a record of 4:1-0-2 when 3rd up, this looks his best trip and only question mark today is the track conditions. DO YOU RECKON goes well on a wet track and has the speed to put himself in a good position here, he will need to be sharp early as he comes from the widest barrier and potentially a lot of luck.
Race 7
2- MANKAYAN
10- PRIX DE TURN
12- BLUE CUP
A key player has been scratched from this which now looks to really boost the chances of his stablemate MANKAYAN. He will race on speed and draws inside which is going to put him in that commanding position. No wins over this trip, but hasn’t missed the placings from 3 starts and goes well on a heavy track, looks really well placed. PRIX DE TURN was a Group 2 winner here at the end of his last prep. Should be improved rising in trip now and 2nd up now. Wide barrier the query, but with a light weight he should be finishing off strongly. Don’t think we have quite seen the best of import BLUE CUP yet in his 3 Australian starts. He likes to push forwards so potentially could find success here at Moonee Valley, will carry 7kg less than the last start which should really help also.
Race 8
11- ESTA LA ROCA (EW/VALUE OF DAY)
4- EXTREMELY LUCKY
10- MILEVA
Keen on some value here in todays feature. Willing to take on favourite EXTREMELY LUCKY. No knock on him at all and think he is super talented but he has shown so far that he is a get back run on type of horse and I feel that he won’t be very well suited here at Moonee Valley, if he can push more forwards from barrier 6 potentially he is a chance. Prefer to be with a runner who is much better suited in ESTA LA ROCA, he has a strong record over this track/distance (7:3-1-1). He goes well 1st up and on a heavy track, he will give himself every chance pushing forwards from barrier 2. MILEVA is another who will find a strong forwards position from a good barrier and should be an improver 3rd up where she has previously been strong at this stage of a prep.
Race 9
6- THE GARDEN
11- SIXBYSIXTYTHREE
1- RIVER TWAIN
THE GARDEN resumes today, he has an overall consistent record and hasn’t run a bad 1st up race yet to date. He has great early speed, so expecting he will push forwards and lob in a prominent position and control the race. SIXBYSIXTYTHREE is rising in grade but he has been strong in his last 2 starts. Drawn in barrier 1, expect him to be amongst the leaders. RIVER TWAIN was a 1st up winner and he can maybe go on with it now as he has a good record 2nd up through his career. Drawn to get a good run and won’t mind the rain, could be a strong EW chance.
Quaddie
1,2,3,6,12
2,3,10,11,12
2,4,5,10,11
6,11
$250 = 100%
