Morphettville, Saturday, 12/8
Conditions - SOFT
Race 1
2- JEWEL BAY 🥇
1- SURPRISE COMING 🥈
3- GRUELLING ❌
JEWEL BAY for the Stokes team showed good form in his debut prep when winning 1st up and then running well 2nd up in a smart 2YO race. He has trialled really nicely leading into this and looks ready to fire. SURPRISE COMING was an impressive winner last start making it 2 wins in a row now. He is in good form now. GRUELLING was a winner on debut, some mid week form has been franked out of his win and with improvement he might go close.
Race 2
14- TRES BELLE 🥇
2- BRAVEMAN’SGAME 🥈
9- THE BACK PAGE ❌
TRES BELLE was 2nd in a photo finish when making her debut at Gawler recently. She was beaten by KATIM’S CLUB who franked that form coming out and winning at Balaklava Wednesday. Of the runners with the exposed for TRES BELLE looks the one. BRAVEMAN’SGAME makes his debut here, he has had 2 trials leading into this and both looked like good enough work to suggest he can produce a strong debut run. THE BACK PAGE is another runner who has race experience which can be a big positive in these maidens. Drawn barrier 1 today he may be a lot more positive.
Race 3
6- SILENT DON 🥇
3- BLUE CUP ❌
4- MONTEPULCIANO 🥈
SILENT DON was 3rd here last start. He ran along ok, but did look a little one paced at the end. The rise up to 1800m now looks really suitable for him off the back of that. He has won twice over this trip and with a small field he shouldn’t run into much bad luck. Victorian visitor BLUE CUP should find this an easier level race than what he has recently been competing in. Potentially he has some extra class over some of these and expecting he will be in a prominent spot from barrier 2. MONTEPULCIANO has been flying in recent runs. An 1800m trip suits him as does a small field.
Race 4
4- MERCHANT BOSS 🥈
3- SWEETENED 🥇
8- SABERMETRIC ❌
MERCAHNT BOSS has found winning form now winning his last 2 starts. He puts himself in strong positions up on the speed and has been strong. He draws well here in barrier 4 and gets in light at the weights after the 3kg claim. SWEETENED was good in the Listed Lightning stakes recently when she was making her debut for a new stable. She has won 2nd up off a break before and looks well suited at BM70 level here. She looks an obvious winning chance but probably a bit hard to take at the real short price as she will be far back in running and may need luck. SABERMETRIC didn’t run as expected 1st up and has some lengths to make up on MERCHANT BOSS, but his best is good enough if he finds it.
Race 5
6- MORE SUGAR 🥉
2- SIX FOOT SONG ❌
3- CABLE DANCER ❌
MORE SUGAR got too far back last weekend and left herself too much to do late. She backs up quickly here and now gets out to the 1800m trip which is going to be ideal for her. She is better suited today in the small field over the longer trip. Expect she can improve sharply. SIX FOOT SONG does his best work at this 1800m trip. He has won 3/6 over this distance. He drops in class today after running 3rd last weekend, but has the heavier weight to deal with because of that. CABLE DANCER (Still nominated at Moonee Valley as well) is lightly raced but should have no troubles over the 1800m. He is drawn low and has good speed, will look to control this race from the front.
Race 6
4- WALLY WEST (EW/VALUE OF DAY) ❌
7- SIXTEEN REASONS 🥈
5- CLAMARC ❌
Willing to risk the fave SIXTEEN REASONS here as the fave. She went around mid week at short odds and wasn’t super convincing at the $1.50 price. She came out and ran a good race in the Listed Lightning Stakes next though which suggests she is going well. She can definitely win this but I’m going to side with WALLY WEST at the better odds. He doesn’t win often but rarely runs a bad race. He had no luck in the Lightning but prior to that he went toe to toe with VALIDATED and that has proven to be a strong form line now with VALIDATED performing well at Caulfield and winning at Murray Bridge last weekend. CLAMARC is only lightly raced but the stable has been persistent with him which suggests he has good enough talent. He was a strong winner 2 starts back at Balaklava and wouldn’t surprise at odds.
Race 7
8- AMMO AMOUR 🥇
1- NEODIUM ❌
2- JACK THE LAD ❌
This looks the trickiest race of the day from mine. Willing to risk NEODIUM who is probably the best horse in the race but he needs to carry a big weight over some ground which is the risk. He maps for a soft run up on the speed which may help offset the weight but I would prefer to be with AMMO AMOUR at the better odds. He was handy last week up in grade behind VALIDATED and this looks an easier race, he gets better the deeper into his prep he gets and fitter he gets and he wouldn’t surprise at EW odds in this field. JACK THE LAD won impressively at odds last time. This isn’t much of a step up in grade today and he could produce a repeat effort with a similar run.
Race 8
10- SEE YOU IN HEAVEN (BEST OF DAY) 🥇
2- IRONCLAD ❌
1- SAVATOXL 🥈
The feature race of today is The Group 3 Behemoth Stakes over the 1200m. There is a good mix of proven Group level performers and up and coming talents. The most exciting horse in this field is probably SEE YOU IN HEAVEN who may even arguably be the best horse currently in the state. She had an interrupted autumn prep when she looked like she may be a chance to win a Group 1 in Victoria. She is a Group 2 winner and her best form should be too good for a race like this. That’s the question mark over her, if she is ready to go 1st up today but in her recent trial she travelled up very sweetly so expect she can produce today. IRONCLAD has won twice 1st up previously and trialled to the line with SEE YOU IN HEAVEN recently. He rates highly for this. And is Group level placed recently. SAVATOXL is a Group 1 winner who races well here. He will be up on the speed and in a good position, question mark for him is how he handles coming back from racing up in Darwin only a couple weeks ago.
Race 9
2- PORTATION ❌
3- SAVILLE 🥈
5- LAKE AGAWAM ❌
PORTATION has won 2 in a row this prep and this doesn’t look any harder than the last start race he won. He is proving to be a very consistent type over his short career, coming back to the 1100m doesn’t look a negative, feel he can continue to rise through the grades now and if the track gets to the Soft 6 range, he will be even more suited the wetter the track gets. SAVILLE is dropping back slightly in grade today and won 2 in a row recently. He hasn’t been far away in her last 2 runs and stacks up in this grade. LAKE AGAWAM may be an improver 2nd up his best form can stack up in this grade given the right run.
Quaddie
1,4,5,7,8 ✅
1,2,8,9,10,11 ✅
10 ✅
2,3,5,7,8,9 ✅
$180 = 100%✅✅✅✅
