Morphettville, Saturday, 15/7
Conditions - SOFT
Race 1
3- PEGASI
6- ZION
4- HOWL
PEGASI has been very good since joining Travis Doudle’s stable having won once and run 2nd in his last start. Expecting him to really appreciate this Morphettville Parks track as he will lead them up and this track should favour runners up on the speed. ZION is dual nominated for here & a race at Flemington so potentially will come out yet, but he does look a runner with some good class having been around the mark in recent runs at Flemington. The small risk on him here though is he likes to get back and is drawn barrier 1 which may lead him to find trouble. HOWL always runs a good race, he was a winner in a very similar race to this 2 starts back in a small field. He will be better served not getting to far back in the field.
Race 2
4- EXALTED RUTH
2- JAGUARY
3- RED PHANTOM
Tricky little staying race, not overly keen to have a bet into it, but EXALTED RUTH represents some good EW value at her current price. She has a very good record over this track/distance (6:2-1-1) and has found some good form in her past 2 runs including a last start win. She is in well at the weights and looks well placed. JAGUARY was 2.5L behind EXALTED RUTH last start but is better suited on a slightly drier track here today and going up in trip, may need luck but the extra distance will help. RED PHANTOM is the current fave, he has a good race map and looks the one who will lead and control this race. The only knock I have on him is he is rising right up in trip today for the first time and is coming off 2 synthetic track runs onto a soft track now. His 2 recent wins have been huge but he is a very short price to find out.
Race 3
6- DUBENENKO
2- PROVEN CORRECT
1- DEADLY PRESS
This is basically the feature race of todays meeting. The only black type race today, The Listed Oaklands Plate for the 2YOs over the 1400m trip. Going with DUBENENKO on top for this, feel like she has the most upside of any of these runners today. She resumed with a last start win at Murray Bridge and did it while she still didn’t look her best. So she may improve on that run yet and has good class which she proved when running a big race in The Blue Diamond. PROVEN CORRECT ran 2nd behind DUBENENKO last start, he is only lightly raced and has run a placing in all 3 of his career starts, expect he can run a good race again. DEADLY PRESS is a Victorian visitor who was a last start winner. Has to step up here but should race on speed and be given every chance.
Race 4
3- WILD IMAGINATION
8- FRANCE’S BOY
4- FEDERAL
WILD IMAGINATION was an impressive last start winner when she went across to Caulfield and won impressively. She is 4th up into her prep here today, last prep she won in strong fashion 4th up over the 1800m. So expecting she is now fit and in form, should be near the front of the field and in a strong position. FRANCE’S BOY maps to be the likely leader from barrier 1 and he is ever consistent. Has 3 wins over this track/trip and gets in well at the weights. FEDERAL is an interesting import runner 2nd up here today. His Australian debut run was promising and potentially has some improvement to come off the back of that.
Race 5
5- ANOTHER PONZI (BEST OF DAY)
1- SO SAY ANGEL
6- ANNIHILATE
ANOTHER PONZI is only lightly raced, he has only missed the placings once and that was last start when he stepped right up in grade at Caulfield. Expect he can be a big improver today back down to a more suitable grade. His form this prep prior to the Caulfield run was solid, he was 2nd by a short margin here and prior to that he won 2 in a row at Balaklava, both in impressive fashion. He will push forwards and be near the front of the field in a prime position. SO SAY ANGEL showed good improvement last start to finish 2nd over the 1200m. Up in trip here today is much more suitable for her now. She gets in will at the weights and with the right run can hit the line strongly. ANNIHILATE has been in good form since joining the Beig stable winning 2 and running 2nd in his last start. He is inn good form and is capable.
Race 6
6- IMMORTALITY
4- COLD CASE
3- STARSONGARI
Victorian visitor IMMORTALITY looks like a runner who has some good upside but hasn’t quite found suitable conditions recently to showcase that talent. He was an impressive winner 1st up back in May and expect he improves today coming off a heavy track. Drawn nicely to be able to push forwards and be in a prime position. COLD CASE is in good form, he was a winner 2 starts back and then last start only missed by 0.2L. Expect he can push forwards from barrier 4 and is well rated in this grade. STARSONGARI is a good mare who is very consistent. She will need luck late from the inside barrier but if she can get some luck and clear running space, she will be hitting the line hard.
Race 7
6- STORM HUNTER
1- CUBAN STATE
3- ORBITAL EXPRESS
STORM HUNTER is becoming a bit of a perennial place getter having run 3rd in 5 of his last 6 starts but gets conditions to suit here today. Drawn barrier 3 and has reasonable early speed, he should land in a prominent position and after Alana Livesey’s 3kg claim, he will go around with only 52Kgs which is a big 9kgs less than CUBAN STATE who is the other runner at the top of the market. For me CUBAN STATE looks the best horse in this race and he was impressive up in grade at Caulfield last start, but the big weight he will have to carry looks the risk for him today. ORBITAL EXPRESS showed some good talent when she was back in NSW. She is at a big price and may need luck to win this, but she is one to follow as a win doesn’t look far off.
Race 8
9- BOOGNISH
3- ORACLE SON (EW/VALUE OF DAY)
1- DECLARED
For me this race depends a fair bit on how the track has been playing in the previous 7 races today. If the track is flat out favouring leaders, I’ve good the lightly raced BOOGNISH on top. BOOGNISH was an impressive winner on debut before contesting a Listed level race next. She has had a spell since and is drawn to get a good run here with a low weight on her back. If runners can make up ground, ORACLE SON looks every chance even from the wide barrier. He produced a huge run last time at Murray Bridge to win well coming from midfield. He has talent but is still very raw, expect to see him hitting the line hard. DECLARED rates well in this field, he won 2 in a row before producing a disappointing run last start when held up. Look for an improved run today.
Race 9
8- RISING LEGEND
2- JEAN VALJEAN
3- OBI
This is the trickiest race of the day and one that has a tough race map. Not a race I’m super keen to be backing in at this stage. Feel RISING LEGEND will give a good sight at an EW price as he will likely lead from barrier 3 and get a soft run over the 1000m. He is stepping up in class so will need luck. JEAN VALJEAN looks like the best horse in this race but has a sticky race map to deal with. He will likely go back to last from the wide barrier and will need some luck in this full field over the 1000m. If he can find a run at them in the straight he will be a chance but again, needs everything to go right. OBI is another runner who should be able to push slightly forwards from a good barrier and has a good record when running 1st up.
Quaddie
1,4,6
1,3,6,10
1,2,3,8,9
1,2,5,8,9,15
$360 = 100%
