Morphettville, Saturday, 20/5
Conditions - Soft
Race 1
10- CAPTAIN BRITIAN
6- SILENT SURRENTE
1- GAME KEEPER
Didn’t have a lot between the 2 favorites CAPTAIN BRITIAN & SILENT SURRENTE in this. I’ve gone with CAPTAIN BRITIAN on top, I feel he has a better race map with expecting there to be a fair bit of pressure up front. He backs up from a run last weekend where he was hitting the line well late, so rising to 2028m today looks ideal. SILENT SURRENTE was an impressive winner last start, she is in super form and it is hard to knock here, but I’m mapping this race to have a lot of pressure up at the front from the likes of DIXIE WHISTLER & PRINCE JOFRA too. She may get caught in a speed battle which is the risk. GAME KEEPER comes in to this fitter and 3rd up today. He has had some very strong market support early and has previously won 2/2 3rd up runs in his career.
Race 2
3- FASUTO **SCRATCHED**
6- HOWL
2- CELSIUS STAR
FASUTO has been running well recently back in Victoria winning 2 in a row recently before running into a white hot horse KATSU. Gets suitable conditions in this today and looks a very winnable race for him based on his recent form. HOWL resumes here today, he generally runs good races when 1st up into a prep (2:1-1-0) and also has a strong record at the track having won 3 races here. Don’t mind the wide barrier for him as we know he will go back and be doing his best work late. CELSIUS STAR continues to impress having won his previous 3 races. He has a sticky barrier to contend with here today and is getting a bit up there in the weights now, but it’s hard to knock winning form.
Race 3
6- IPHIMEDIA
5- CHILLED
1- HEURISTIC
IPHIMEDIA & CHILLED hit the line together when they met last start in The Listed Without Fear Stakes. CHILLED was the better of the 2 that day but I’m expecting IPHIMEDIA can turn the tables today, she maps to get a bit of a softer run up on the speed today which should help here be stronger late and there were a few excuses with the saddle which may not have helped her that day either. Still expecting CHILLED will run well again as she has been in super form this prep with 2 wins from 3 starts. HEURISTIC has jumped as fave in his 2 runs here recently, winning one and a close 2nd the other. His form is solid and he maps well, he should be around the mark again here.
Race 4
1- LET’SBEFRANKBABY
12- RAVIN
6- WHISPERING LADY
LET’SBEFRANKBABY looks well placed here today stretching out over a bigger trip now. Her recent form is good, she has won 2 starts this prep and was 3rd in the G3 Auraria Stakes. She has bypassed the Oaks and so this looks the probable target race for her. She ran well in The VRC Oaks last year so we know she is proven at the longer 2500m trip. There was some good support for RAVIN to run a good race in The Oaks recently, but as the emergency she didn’t get a run and instead ran in The Chairman’s Stakes against the boys. Previous to that though she also ran in the Auraria Stakes and was 5th only 0.4L behind LET’SBEFRANKY. RAVIN looks the major threat here is she can stay the trip. WHISPERING LADY rana strong 4th in The Chairman’s Stakes and will be suited to a wet track if the rain comes.
Race 5
9- FOXY FRIDA (BEST OF DAY)
10- PARTY PRINCESS
4- SO SI BON
Feeling that FOXY FRIDA will be very hard to beat in this race today, but she is just about at an unbackable price for mine, currently sitting around the $1.85 mark but if she drifts closer to $2 she is a better bet. Her recent form is strong, she is fit and firing now and was unlucky to lose in the G2 Queen Of The South Stakes. PARTY PRINCESS is a close 2nd pick, she backs up this week after winning in easy fashion last weekend. This is tougher competition today, but she is right down in the weights and if she can repeat last weeks performance she should be hard to hold out. She has had a mixed prep and she may have hit her peak now, but your getting good enough odds to find out. SO SI BON never runs a bad race and maps to get a good run up on speed. His form lines are strong include recently running only 5L behind The All Star Mile winner MR BRIGHTSIDE. Strong form lines for a race like this.
Race 6
8- THOUGHT PROVOKING
4- CAP DE JOI
9- WARM SMILE
THOUGHT PROVOKING has finished 2nd in both of her other runs this prep. 3rd up here now today and rising to a 2000m trip look the keys for her here today. She has a good record in 3rd up runs (2:1-1-0) and maps well, expecting she will find a prominent position in running. CAP DE JOI was backed like she was nearly unbeatable last start before running 4th. She got a bit too far back and left her self to much to do. Think is is a risk of that again given this race doesn’t map to be run at a very fast tempo. She is again being backed so that support and SP profile are positives for her. WARM SMILE may be an improver getting out to a suitable trip for the first time since she has arrived from the UK. The extra trip should suit and she is booked with a jockey who is in some serious form of late.
Race 7
4- FOXICON
3- HYPOTHETICAL
5- I AM BENE
FOXICON is in super form, she has won 4 of her 5 runs this prep and looks well placed to keep that up. She won in super fashion last time and will only carry an extra 2kgs here today. She maps well from barrier 4 and will likely sit just off the speed of HYPOTHETICAL. She is a proven winner and should be hard to beat. If HYPOTHETICAL can settle and find her best form, she is well in this race. 2 starts back she was only 1.4L behind ZAPATEO, but she does a lot wrong in runs which has been costing her of late. She has trialled well recently and has the speed to cross and lead. Local runner I AM BENE resumes here, she is 2/2 wins when resuming in preps. This is tougher competition but she is consistent and should be given every chance from barrier 1.
Race 8
9- LOFTY STRIKE
4- KALLOS
1- FRONT PAGE
The feature for today, The Group 1 Goodwood. Looks the day for LOFTY STRIKE today, he has been running well in stronger Group 1s this season behind the likes of GIGA KICK & I WISH I WIN who are some of the worlds best sprinters. LOFTY STRIKE gets in well at the weights here today and he more importantly will get a favourable race map. We know he will settle back in the field, but I’m expecting this race will be run at a hot tempo with the likes of FRONT PAGE, SAVATOXL & SERADESS looking to go quick early. A hot tempo will play into the hands of LOFTY STRIKE and with clear running space he will be very hard to hold out. KALLOS for me in the main danger, he has now won 3 in a row including the Group 3 Irwin Stakes. He has a very good race map out of barrier 4 which is going to put him in a super position coming into the straight. The 1200m is the question mark over him, but the fashion he won the G3 suggests he is in good enough form to see it out. FRONT PAGE put in a huge run in his last start to only just miss the win. Prior to that run he was competing in strong Group 1 races against the worlds best as well.
Race 9
3- JACKS ON ICE
7- SOMEWATT FABULOUS (EW/VALUE OF DAY)
15- ALOTAFUN
The Richard & Chantelle Jolly stable look to have a hold on this race for mine and I’m thinking they can quinella the race. JACKS ON ICE only just missed in his last start when he was done on the line but he gets a much more favourable race map here today and looks like he will have a lot less pressure on him up on the speed. SOMEWATT FABULOUS is a resuming runner in this race, she has a good 1st up record and goes well over this track/distance. A wide barrier does suit her get back style of running so that isn’t a concern. She may need some luck and there are some question marks around her fitness, but if she is here at her best she, she is capable at this level. ALOTAFUN has had a freshen up since a dissapointing race last start when she jumped as fave. If you go back to her win at Strathalbyn she was very impressive. Only lightly raced and may have upside, but may need luck similar to SOMEWATT FABULOUS.
Quaddie
4,8
2,3,4,5
1,4,7,9,10,16,17
3,7,9,13,15
$280 = 100%
