Murray Bridge, Saturday 5/3
Conditions - Soft
Race 1
10- YAKUTSK
2- DEEP POINT
6- THE NAZARENE
Like YAKUTSK at the better price in this. She comes out of some sharp Victorian 2yo races and looks as if she will get a soft run from her good barrier and is a the lighter end of the weights. DEEP POINT was spelled straight after he debuted in a sharp race at Flemington in November. He must have some talent as he is from a smart stable and they thought enough of him to enter him in a group 3. He has trialled really well leading up to this, but the wide barrier is a concern for me here, he may have extra work to do out wide to find a position. THE NAZARENE is on debut and comes from a smart stable, drawn well for a good run.
Race 2
12- GLOVED
6- STARTS WITH HELLO
4- LAKEHURST
GLOVED is on debut for a new stable here today, she has shown talent it spurts across her lightly raced career. She has been trialling well and looks like she has the class of this field. STARTS WITH HELLO debuts for an inform stable and the trial we have seen looked handy. He has had some good early market support which is always a strong sign for a debutant. LAKEHURST has had some good race experience coming out of some handy maiden races. Wasn’t far off the winners last start at Oakbank and draws well here today to get a good run.
Race 3
12- LEGLESS LADY (BEST OF DAY)
13- SPIRITUAL GAL
10- DECIBELLES
Have this as a race between 2 runners SPIRITUAL GAL and LEGLESS LADY. Both runners are resuming after some decent runs. LEGLESS LADY has competed in some city level maidens that do look at a stronger level than what she is meeting here today. Think the draw wide suits her and she has a long straight and wide track to work with here for a big finish. SPIRITUAL GAL showed potential at trial level before making a race debut but hasn’t quite lived up to that. She will push forwards and try to find a leading position, the wide barrier is the concern that she may get caught wide. Will carry a light weight which should help and has had the early market supports. Thought DECIBELLES was disappointing last start in what looked a winnable race at Oakbank. Gets set up nicely if the race has a bit early tempo.
Race 4
4- BONJOUR BLUE (EW/VALUE OF DAY)
7- PLAYBOY CHARLIE
1- ALWAYS SOMETIMES
Think the key for BONJOUR BLUE today may be that she he gets out to trip that may suit him for the first time. The way he has been finishing off races suggests this especially last start when he was coming home hard. PLAYBOY CHARLIE debuts for a new stable here today. Give him a chance based on the fact a lot in this field haven’t been tested out at a stating trip but he has covered more ground previously. He may want more ground, but is proven at the further distances. ALWAYS SOMETIMES had placed in his last 3 starts. Gets a perfect run here from the barrier and is the one they need to catch. The 1800m is the query for me if he handles that trip.
Race 5
2- BADONKIDONK
7- HARBELLE
3- AMMO LOCO
BADONKIDONK has found form this prep having only missed the placings once from 5 starts including a win. His last 2 starts have been behind some good stayers and he should,find this easier. Gets a soft run from the barrier and is proven over this distance range. HARBELLE showed last start that she appreciates getting out over some further ground, so she should appreciate the 2000m and the big track gives her space to work with late. AMMO LOCO looks overs for a horse who won its last start in a tougher grade than this. That was over this distance range and he maps for a soft run.
Race 6
3- PREFER US
4- AITCH D’AMICO
1- NEVA DOUBT US
PREFER US was much better last start when she was a winner over the 1900m. The first up run she looked a bit flat but showed good improvement in the win. The way she finished off suggests 2000m suits and she should be able to find a prominent position from an inside barrier. AITCH D’AMICO drops in class from recent runs at listed level at Morphettville. Had some back luck and couldn’t find a run last start so could forgive that run, the rise in distance is query. NEVA DOUBT US will likely be back in the field and doing his best work late. This race has a lot of speed in it which may set him up.
Race 7
2- THRILL KILL
4- THE BRUMBY
5- CAPRICORN RIDGE
Good race this on, it’s quite open. THRILL KILL has been inform this prep having placed in his last 3 starts and running at a good level. The last start 2nd at Penola was against a couple handy runners and he should find a good run from his inside barrier. THE BRUMBY is capable of more than what he has produced so far this prep. This is a drop in grade now for him and he should start to improve as he gets fitter and deeper into the prep. Likely wants some soft conditions to work with. CAPRICORN RIDGE is another who has found form this prep. Has won races at this level recently and comes back in distance here today. The wide barrier may hurt his chances but he is in form and may give a sight.
Race 8
4- BIGNOTA
1- MAGNO
2- ARCHIE’S A STAR
Found this race probably the toughest of the day. Have BIGNOTA on top as he has been close in his past 2 and generally gives himself every chance by leading them up. Would prefer to see get a more inside barrier, but at the track he may be a chance to cut across them early with some luck. MAGNO rates highest in this field today, he doesn’t win often but is often looking a chance at some point in the race. Drawn well might get run of the race. ARCHIES A STAR is on debut for a new stable, at big odds but may be a EW play as his recent form suggests he likes to lead and be out in front. He draws a nice barrier to find that run with out spending much extra.
Race 9
4- PENWORTHAM
5- DISCO THILMORN
9- INSAAF
Giving PENWORTHAM one more chance at it here today. I’m sure I have been on him each of his runs this prep and have been unlucky a couple of times. He gets the extra chance because I think from the wider barrier they will race him back in behind them which may settle him nicely. He then gets the room late to be finishing off best thanks to the bigger track here. DISCO THILMORN has a very good overall record for her short career so far. She finds ideal conditions and her past couple runs have been good. Rises to 1400m which I haven’t seen anything to suggest that shouldn’t suit her. INSAAF was goo first up for the new stable. She should be better suited back on a good surface today but may need some luck in running from the wide barrier which may hurt her.
WARRNAMBOOL BEST BETS
R6/1- SAUNTER BOY
Don’t profess to be much of a jumps analyst, but I am a big fan of SAUNTER BOY. I think he is as tough as they come and he showed that In his last start fighting late to win. He will give it his all and should be in the finish.
R8/4- SHOWMANSHIP
Is undefeated when he is 1st up. His career record is outstanding having won 7 of his 8 career starts. I think he will handle what ever the track conditions get to during the day. The query would be the wide barrier, but I feel it may not matter so much as runner may want to be off the fence, especially if rain continues.
MB Quaddie
3,4
1,2,4,5,13
1,2,4,6,10
1,2,4,5,7,9
